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A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."